It's downhill from here. Gartner places Generative AI at the peak of the hype cycle. In Gartner's 2023 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies [1], generative AI can be seen on the "peak of inflated expectations", with a plateau predicted to be reached in 2-5 years. Generative AI, if the prediction is right, is now headed toward the "through of disillusionment". Here's how Gartner defines "Peak of inflated expectations" (where generative AI is today): Early publicity produces a number of success stories — often accompanied by scores of failures. Some companies take action; many do not. And how Gartner defines "Trough of Disillusionment" (where it's headed): Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters. Looking ahead, after the trough of disillusionment, the two next stages are (again, according to Gartner): Slope of Enlightenment: More instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots; conservative companies remain cautious. Plateau of Productivity (where generative AI is predicted to be in 2-5 years): Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology's broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off. It's also interesting to note that several AI-related technologies are emerging as "innovation triggers". So even as the generative AI hype wanes, more AI is coming. References [1] https://lnkd.in/dgS3MtcK [2] https://lnkd.in/d9yCjgMt #ai #genai# #generativeai #gartner
In 2011, Gartner predicted that Symbian, which was developed by Nokia, would remain the dominant mobile operating system until at least 2015, with a market share of around 30%. This prediction was made despite the increasing popularity of smartphones running on iOS and Android. However, Gartner's prediction proved to be far from accurate. By 2011, iOS and Android were already gaining significant traction in the smartphone market, offering a more user-friendly experience and a wider range of applications compared to Symbian. Within just a couple of years after the prediction, Symbian's market share plummeted rapidly, and by 2013, Nokia had announced the discontinuation of the Symbian platform.
Bob Machlin
8mo
Gartner's placement of Generative AI as a single datapoint on their Hype Cycle chart shows their naivety in GenAI technology. Sure, for personal and consumer use it may be accurate. But business use, and more specifically, the underlying GenAI technologies embedded in AI tools, are just now coming to market or an in development, is what will enable the $1T+ market that McKinsey has forecasted. The Gartner analyst(s) that created that data point needs AI education.
Sam Jeremiah
8mo
Agree with Tarun, I don’t think even Gartner ‘s analysts know the journey that this one is going to take
Dan Södergren
8mo
I would put #GenerativeAI a bit later down into the trough than this... But heck that's really interesting to note. As someone called a #Tech #futurist especially around the #FutureOfWork the Gartner hype cycle is always in my slides when #keynotespeaking. Just on the principle of the idea alone.. Looks like I might be a bit early for my workshops on #AI for #marketing... Or just the right time. What you think Victor Dantas I personally think AI has been through three of these already so... Lol.
Kaushik Ray
8mo
The time taken to traverse through the different phases of hype cycle vary from technology to technology. It is quite possible for GenAI to move from inflated expectations to the plateau of productivity faster..
So be aware that AI stocks will slow down too? :-)
Sam Jeremiah
8mo
Thoughts Christelle Xu ?
Principal Architect | Faculty | Founder | Author | CTO | GenerativeAI | DevOps | Cloud - A Trusted Technology Leader ( All views are my own)
8moVictor Dantas with all due respect I beg to differ. I think this is different. We already cross the Trough of Disillusioned. Everyone is convinced about this technology now as its already benefiting. We now need to figure out how best we can use it. So we are in the last Phase Platue of Productivity. So Gartner is probably wrong this time.